What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, ↓ 45,000, is at 7%. The market settles by Jan 1, 2027, and $1.7M traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 7¢ reads as a 7% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
This question also has a permanent page: Bitcoin price odds
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 4 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 5,000 | 1% | 1¢ | $559 | Trade |
| ↓ 10,000 | 1% | 1¢ | $37K | Trade |
| ↓ 15,000 | 2% | 2¢ | $11K | Trade |
| ↓ 20,000 | 1% | 1¢ | $209 | Trade |
| ↓ 25,000 | 2% | 2¢ | $8K | Trade |
| ↓ 30,000 | 2% | 2¢ | $12K | Trade |
| ↓ 35,000 | 2% | 2¢ | $70K | Trade |
| ↓ 40,000 | 5% | 5¢ | $95K | Trade |
| ↓ 45,000 | 7% | 7¢ | $344K | Trade |
| ↓ 50,000 | 15% | 15¢ | $244K | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 55,000 | 31% | 31¢ | $289K | Trade |
| ↓ 60,000 | 58% | 58¢ | $160K | Trade |
| ↑ 90,000 compare | 7% | 7¢ | $183K | Trade |
| ↑ 95,000 compare | 4% | 4¢ | $27K | Trade |
| ↑ 100,000 compare | 3% | 3¢ | $37K | Trade |
| ↑ 110,000 | 2% | 2¢ | $7K | Trade |
| ↑ 120,000 compare | 1% | 1¢ | $4K | Trade |
| ↑ 130,000 | 1% | 1¢ | $7K | Trade |
| ↑ 140,000 | 1% | 1¢ | $16K | Trade |
| ↑ 150,000 | 1% | 1¢ | $802 | Trade |
| ↑ 160,000 | 1% | 1¢ | $16 | Trade |
| ↑ 170,000 | <1% | <1¢ | $150 | Trade |
| ↑ 180,000 | <1% | <1¢ | $1 | Trade |
| ↑ 190,000 | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| ↑ 200,000 | <1% | <1¢ | $79 | Trade |
| ↑ 250,000 | <1% | <1¢ | $3 | Trade |
| ↑ 500,000 | <1% | <1¢ | $695 | Trade |
| ↑ 1,000,000 | <1% | <1¢ | $53K | Trade |
| ↓ 60,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↓ 60,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↓ 65,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↓ 65,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $117K | |
| ↑ 65,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↑ 65,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↓ 70,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↑ 70,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↑ 70,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↓ 75,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↓ 75,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| ↑ 75,000Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 |
5 more outcomes are priced on Polymarket: the full board on Polymarket (opens in a new tab).
Close-only for US residentsChance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 1¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 7¢cheapest to buy | 94¢ | 0.4¢ | $183K | $103K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 13¢ | 88¢ | 0.8¢ | $3K | – | Trade → |
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 4¢cheapest to buy | 96¢ | 0.3¢ | $27K | $108K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 6¢ | 95¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $37K | $109K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 5¢ | 95¢ | 0.3¢ | $94 | – | Trade → |
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 1¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | $4K | $164K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 2¢ | 98¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Polymarket publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 1, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket app review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 1¢ for ↓ 5,000 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, ↓ 45,000, is at 7%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 4 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.