Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in November? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in November" at 5%, with 2 venues quoting within 5 points of each other. The contract settles by Dec 1, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | 0.2¢ | $20K | $60K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 7¢ | 93¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a…
Full settlement wording
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
If a qualifying one-minute average of the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) is above $2,500 after issuance at Nov 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST and before Nov 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST, then the…
The source is CF Benchmarks. Each minute after issuance and before the deadline is evaluated separately: discard the highest 20% and lowest 20% of ETHUSD_RTI observations in that minute and average the remaining 60%. The qualifying average must be strictly greater than the threshold; equality does not qualify. An earlier qualifying minute counts even if Ethereum subsequently falls below the threshold. Last trading is the earlier of the first 10:00 AM ET following a qualifying occurrence or the stated deadline. Expiration follows the effective ETHMINMAX amendment: the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following a qualifying occurrence, the stated deadline, the first 10:00 AM ET after the deadline that data is available, or one month after the selected date. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Revisions after expiration are disregarded.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in November"?
Markets currently price it at 5% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in November"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.