Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year" at 6%, with 2 venues quoting within 2 points of each other. The contract settles by Mar 31, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 5¢cheapest to buy | 95¢ | free | $0 | $17K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 7¢ | 94¢ | 0.4¢ | $6K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026.
The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure.
This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
If Donald Trump is #1 search on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves based on the individual ranked #1 in the “People” section of Google’s official Year in Search 2026 – Global list. Google’s report includes multiple sections such as Searches, News, Passings, and People — only the People section applies to this market. If Liam Payne is #1 in “Searches” but Donald Trump is #1 in “People,” the market resolves Yes to Donald Trump. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Google. Any references Google, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Google and Kalshi.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 94% · $10K 24h volume, both venues
Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Yes 91% · $5K 24h volume on Polymarket (Polymarket US publishes none)
Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · Yes 58% · $5K 24h volume on Polymarket and Kalshi (Polymarket US publishes none)
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · Yes 27% · $4K 24h volume on Polymarket and Kalshi (Polymarket US publishes none)
Will Amber Glenn win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · Yes 16% · $4K 24h volume on Polymarket and Kalshi (Polymarket US publishes none)
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ at execution.
Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year"?
Markets currently price it at 6% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.