Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination? Odds and prices
"Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination" is priced at 9% on Polymarket and 1% on Kalshi, where Kalshi has no live quote: the venues disagree, so 5% is their average, not a consensus. The contract settles by Jan 21, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 9¢ | 92¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | $700 | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
The 99th Academy Awards, given by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), honor the best in film for movies released in the United States between January 1 and December 31, 2026.
Full settlement wording
The 99th Academy Awards, given by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), honor the best in film for movies released in the United States between January 1 and December 31, 2026. The nominations for the 99th Academy Awards are scheduled to be announced on January 21, 2027, with the awards ceremony scheduled for March 14, 2027, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Holland receives an Oscar nomination during the official nominations announcement, expected on January 21, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the nominations are partially announced by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to whether Tom Holland has been nominated up until that point. If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and the Oscars; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Tom Holland has won Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination"?
The venues disagree: 9% on Polymarket and 1% on Kalshi. The 5% shown is their average; the gap often comes from settlement rules worded differently, compared on this page.
Where can I trade "Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.