Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, Yes trades at 9%. That is down 2 points over the past week. The market settles by Jan 21, 2027. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 9¢ reads as a 9% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 9¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 9¢ | 92¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | $700 | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
The 99th Academy Awards, given by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), honor the best in film for movies released in the United States between January 1 and December 31, 2026. The nominations for the 99th Academy Awards are scheduled to be announced on January 21, 2027, with the awards ceremony scheduled for March 14, 2027, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Holland receives an Oscar nomination during the official nominations announcement, expected on January 21, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the nominations are partially announced by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to whether Tom Holland has been nominated up until that point. If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and the Oscars; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Jan 21, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 9¢ for Yes right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
More culture markets
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$221K in 24h on Polymarket
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · resolves Mar 31, 2027
$134K in 24h on Polymarket and Kalshi
Will the US confirm that aliens exist?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$142K in 24h on Polymarket and Kalshi
Next James Bond actor
Polymarket · Polymarket US · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$62K in 24h on Polymarket
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Jun 30, 2027
$61K in 24h, both venues
Who will be featured on GTA VI: The Album?
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Nov 26, 2026
$83K in 24h, both venues
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination?”?
On Polymarket, Yes trades at 9%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.