What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? Kalshi odds
On Kalshi, the busiest line, At least 2000, is at 97%. The market settles by Jan 1, 2029, and $503 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 97¢ reads as a 97% chance.
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Kalshi · odds · updated
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 2000 | 97% | 97¢ | $501 | Trade |
| At least 2500 | 92% | 92¢ | $0 | Trade |
| At least 3000 | 77% | 77¢ | $0 | Trade |
| At least 3500 | 72% | 72¢ | $0 | Trade |
| At least 4000 | 60% | 60¢ | $2 | Trade |
| At least 4500 | 51% | 51¢ | $0 | Trade |
| At least 5000 | 44% | 44¢ | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 97¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 1, 2029.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Our Kalshi review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 97¢ for At least 2000 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Polymarket here yet: we have not matched this question to a Polymarket market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on “What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?”?
On Kalshi, the busiest line, At least 2000, is at 97%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
We have not matched it to a Polymarket market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.