New pandemic in 2026: odds and prices
Markets price "New pandemic in 2026" at 6%, with 2 venues quoting within 1 point of each other. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6¢cheapest to buy | 94¢ | free | $6K | $30K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 7¢ | 93¢ | 0.4¢ | $8K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
If any disease becomes a pandemic in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
Will Ethiopia have an Ebola case in 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 6% · $4K 24h volume, both venues
Will India have an Ebola case in 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 15% · $311 24h volume, both venues
Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by November 30?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 10% · $249 24h volume, both venues
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Common questions
What are the odds on "New pandemic in 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 6% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "New pandemic in 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.