Plague pandemic in 2026: odds and prices
"Plague pandemic in 2026" is priced at 2% on Polymarket and 8% on Kalshi, 6 points apart: the venues disagree, so 5% is their average, not a consensus. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | 0.1¢ | $1K | $101K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 8¢ | 93¢ | 0.5¢ | $353 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public…
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumonic involvement, unspecified plague, and animal cases do not qualify. A case must be confirmed in the United States; a U.S. citizen diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed and reported in the United States qualify and need not be linked to the Russian outbreak. The first initial official confirmation must occur after Issuance and before midnight ET at the start of January 1, 2027. Symptom onset or infection before the deadline is insufficient if confirmation occurs later.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 12% · $5K 24h volume, both venues
New pandemic before 2028?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 11% · $2K 24h volume, both venues
Will India have an Ebola case in 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 14% · $899 24h volume, both venues
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 7% · $548 24h volume, both venues
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 22% · $268 24h volume, both venues
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Plague pandemic in 2026"?
The venues disagree: 2% on Polymarket and 8% on Kalshi. The 5% shown is their average; the gap often comes from settlement rules worded differently, compared on this page.
Where can I trade "Plague pandemic in 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.