Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by December 31? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by December 31" at 42%, with 2 venues quoting at the same price. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 45¢ | 55¢ | 1.0¢ | $0 | $126 | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 39¢ | 61¢ | 1.7¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Heidi Overton is confirmed as Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Heidi Overton is confirmed as Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Heidi Overton's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The Senate must confirm this nominee as Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Heidi Overton is the first person confirmed as Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by December 31"?
Markets currently price it at 42% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by December 31"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.