France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026: odds and prices
Markets price "France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026" at 4%, with 2 venues quoting within 4 points of each other. The contract settles by Oct 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | free | $97K | $65K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 6¢ | 95¢ | 0.4¢ | $17K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the…
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence).
Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count.
A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.
A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the French government declares a state of emergency (état d'urgence) after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only reporting from Bloomberg News, Reuters, the Associated Press, or Le Monde qualifies. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify unless the new publication explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of its publication date. Republishing of content from other sources qualifies only if hosted on the outlet’s official platform with that outlet identified as publisher. A state of emergency (état d'urgence) is one declared by decree of the President of France in the Council of Ministers under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, for all or part of French territory, including overseas territories. It counts when the decree is adopted, not when it is merely announced, requested or under consideration. Curfews, protest bans and other measures taken by prefects or mayors, Article 16 or state-of-siege powers, a state of health emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), and natural-disaster declarations do not count.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 4% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.