Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat" at 14%, with 3 venues quoting within 2 points of each other. The contract settles by Nov 3, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 14¢ | 87¢ | free | $226 | $79K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 13¢cheapest to buy | 88¢ | 0.8¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 15¢ | 86¢ | 0.9¢ | $258K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-15 congressional district seat.
Full settlement wording
This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-15 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities.
The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
If the House member sworn in for TX-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat"?
Markets currently price it at 14% across 3 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat"?
On Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. Polymarket US takes US residents only; from the US, polymarket.com is close-only. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.