Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30: odds and prices
Markets price "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30" at 25%, with 2 venues quoting within 3 points of each other. The contract settles by Nov 30, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 23¢cheapest to buy | 77¢ | 0.7¢ | $26K | $8K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 26¢ | 74¢ | 1.3¢ | $29K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Howard Lutnick must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract shall settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30"?
Markets currently price it at 25% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.