Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Kalshi odds
On Kalshi, the favourite is Pete Hegseth, at 51%. The market settles by Jan 20, 2029, and $2K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 51¢ reads as a 51% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Claim $50 bonus on KalshiTrade on Kalshi
$50 bonusNew to Kalshi? Trade $25, get a $50 bonus through our link. US only, 18+. Kalshi promo code terms
Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: 6 questions compared ↓
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth compare | 51% | 51¢ | $295 | Trade |
| Marco Rubio | 21% | 21¢ | $517 | Trade |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. compare | 14% | 14¢ | $195 | Trade |
| Scott Bessent | 5% | 5¢ | $47 | Trade |
| Howard Lutnick compare | 4% | 4¢ | $516 | Trade |
| Todd Blanche | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Linda McMahon | 3% | 3¢ | $16 | Trade |
| Stephen Miller | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mike Waltz | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Doug Collins | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 15 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markwayne Mullin compare | 3% | 3¢ | $280 | Trade |
| Brooke Rollins | 3% | 3¢ | $3 | Trade |
| Scott Turner | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Chris Wright | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Russell Vought compare | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| John Ratcliffe | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jamieson Greer | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Doug Burgum | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Kelly Loeffler | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Sean Duffy | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jay Clayton | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Lee Zeldin compare | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Michael Kratsios | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Christopher Phelan | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Keith Sonderling | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 51¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 44¢cheapest to buy | 57¢ | 1.0¢ | $45K | $67K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 51¢ | 49¢ | 1.7¢ | $295 | – | Trade → |
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 16¢ | 85¢ | 0.5¢ | $3K | $25K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 14¢cheapest to buy | 87¢ | 0.8¢ | $195 | – | Trade → |
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 23¢ | 78¢ | 0.7¢ | $4K | $30K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 4¢cheapest to buy | 96¢ | 0.2¢ | $516 | – | Trade → |
Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 17¢ | 84¢ | 0.6¢ | $24 | $11K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $280 | – | Trade → |
Will Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 9¢ | 92¢ | 0.3¢ | $1 | $9K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 8¢ | 93¢ | 0.3¢ | $1 | $21K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will Pete Hegseth be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 20, 2029.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Our Kalshi app review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 51¢ for Pete Hegseth right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
$50 bonusNew to Kalshi? Trade $25, get a $50 bonus through our link. US only, 18+. Kalshi promo code terms
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
More politics markets
2028 U.S. Presidential Election
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Jan 21, 2029
$1.6M in 24h on Kalshi
Next French Presidential Election
Polymarket · resolves Apr 18, 2027
$1.6M in 24h on Polymarket
Alaska Senate
Kalshi · resolves Jan 4, 2027
$1.5M in 24h on Kalshi
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · resolves Jan 27, 2029
$1.5M in 24h on Kalshi
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · resolves Nov 7, 2028
$1.2M in 24h on Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$1.2M in 24h on Polymarket
Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on “Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?”?
On Kalshi, the favourite is Pete Hegseth, at 51%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 6 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.