Netanyahu out by end of 2026: odds and prices
Markets price "Netanyahu out by end of 2026" at 41%, with 2 venues quoting within 6 points of each other. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 39¢cheapest to buy | 61¢ | free | $8K | $97K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 44¢ | 56¢ | 1.7¢ | $797 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves…
An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 8% · $882K 24h volume, both venues
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 92% · $497K 24h volume, both venues
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 36% · $379K 24h volume, both venues
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 36% · $282K 24h volume, both venues
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 66% · $150K 24h volume, both venues
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 35% · $123K 24h volume, both venues
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ at execution.
Common questions
What are the odds on "Netanyahu out by end of 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 41% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Netanyahu out by end of 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.