Which leaders will leave office in 2026? Kalshi odds
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is at 8%. The market settles by Jan 1, 2027, and $16K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 8¢ reads as an 8% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: 4 questions compared ↓
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 8% | 8¢ | $9K | Trade |
| Pedro Sánchez compare | 39% | 39¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel compare | 12% | 12¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Benjamin Netanyahu compare | 44% | 44¢ | $797 | Trade |
| Vladimir Putin compare | 6% | 6¢ | $165 | Trade |
| Delcy Rodriguez | 8% | 8¢ | $73 | Trade |
| Daniel Noboa | 4% | 4¢ | $67 | Trade |
| Emmanuel Macron | 4% | 4¢ | $58 | Trade |
| Friedrich Merz | 14% | 14¢ | $57 | Trade |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 8% | 8¢ | $54 | Trade |
Show 24 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudia Sheinbaum | 4% | 4¢ | $25 | Trade |
| Narendra Modi | 4% | 4¢ | $24 | Trade |
| Cyril Ramaphosa | 7% | 7¢ | $17 | Trade |
| Félix Tshisekedi | 4% | 4¢ | $10 | Trade |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 6% | 6¢ | $9 | Trade |
| Christopher Luxon | 46% | 46¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 21% | 21¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Rodrigo Paz Pereira | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Lee Jae Myung | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mette Frederiksen | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Ramzan Kadyrov | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Sanae Takaichi | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Ahmad al-Sharaa | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Denis Sassou Nguesso | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Javier Milei | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Irfaan Ali | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Giorgia Meloni | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jens-Frederik Nielsen | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Xi Jinping | 2% | 2¢ | $625 | Trade |
| Kim Jong Un | 2% | 2¢ | $25 | Trade |
| Frederik X | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mark Carney | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Nayib Bukele | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 8¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 39¢cheapest to buy | 61¢ | free | $8K | $97K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 44¢ | 56¢ | 1.7¢ | $797 | – | Trade → |
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 35¢cheapest to buy | 65¢ | free | $81K | $34K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 39¢ | 61¢ | 1.7¢ | $4K | – | Trade → |
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 13¢ | 87¢ | free | $174 | $24K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 12¢cheapest to buy | 88¢ | 0.7¢ | $2K | – | Trade → |
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | free | $94K | $802K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 6¢ | 94¢ | 0.4¢ | $165 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 1, 2027.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Our Kalshi review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 8¢ for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on “Which leaders will leave office in 2026?”?
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is at 8%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 4 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.