Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel" at 2%, with 3 venues quoting within 1 point of each other. The contract settles by Oct 27, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | free | $66K | $182K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 3¢ | 98¢ | 0.2¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 3¢ | 98¢ | 0.2¢ | $351 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
Full settlement wording
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will settle to Yes if Avigdor Lieberman is the first individual to formally assume the office of Prime Minister of Israel as part of government formation following the next Israeli…
Full settlement wording
This market will settle to Yes if Avigdor Lieberman is the first individual to formally assume the office of Prime Minister of Israel as part of government formation following the next Israeli Parliamentary election. Outcome sourced from the Government of Israel.
Any acting, interim, or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the settlement of this market. If the next Israeli parliamentary election takes place, and a new election is called prior to any individual formally assuming the office of Prime Minister of Israel, this market will settle based on the next individual to assume the office as part of government formation following the new election.
If Avigdor Lieberman becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27,…
The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Oct 27, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
Where you can trade this
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel"?
Markets currently price it at 2% across 3 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel"?
On Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. Polymarket US takes US residents only; from the US, polymarket.com is close-only. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.