Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election" at 83%, with 2 venues quoting within 2 points of each other. Trading has ended; the prices below are the last quoted.; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Final prices by venue
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 84¢ | Still open on this venue |
| Kalshi | 83¢ | Still open on this venue |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
Full settlement wording
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Where you can trade this
Nowhere now: trading has ended.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election"?
The question is over. The last prices are kept above as a record, not as odds to trade.
Where can I trade "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election"?
Nowhere now: trading has ended. Polymarket and Kalshi listed it until it closed.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.