Polymarket Brazil Presidential Election odds
On Polymarket, Flávio Bolsonaro closed at 84%. Trading has closed; the result settles the contracts. A contract that closed at 84¢ pays $1 if that outcome is the result, and nothing if not. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · final prices · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 6 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro compare | 84% | 84¢ | $2.2M |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva compare | 16% | 16¢ | $2.3M |
| Renan Santos compare | <1% | <1¢ | $292K |
| Geraldo Alckmin | <1% | <1¢ | $1.2M |
| Augusto Cury compare | <1% | <1¢ | $141K |
| Camilo Santana | <1% | <1¢ | $0 |
| Tarcisio de FreitasFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $178K |
| Ratinho JúniorFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
| Eduardo BolsonaroFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $10 |
| Michelle BolsonaroFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $2 |
Show 9 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo LeiteFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
| Ronaldo CaiadoFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $10K |
| Fernando HaddadFinal compare | 0% | 0¢ | $9 |
| Romeu ZemaFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $7K |
| Jair BolsonaroFinal compare | 0% | 0¢ | $20 |
| Aldo RebeloFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $8 |
| Tereza CristinaFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
| Pablo MarçalFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
| Helder BarbalhoFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 84¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. Trading has ended; these are the last prices each venue quoted.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 84¢ | Still open on this venue |
| Kalshi | 83¢ | Still open on this venue |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16¢ | Still open on this venue |
| Kalshi | 18¢ | Still open on this venue |
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | <1¢ | Still open on this venue |
| Kalshi | 1¢ | Settled No on this venue |
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | <1¢ | Still open on this venue |
| Kalshi | <1¢ | Settled No on this venue |
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0¢ | Settled: No |
| Kalshi | <1¢ | Settled: No |
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0¢ | Settled: No |
| Kalshi | <1¢ | Settled: No |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market settled
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Scheduled resolution: Oct 4, 2026.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Brazil Presidential Election?
On Polymarket, Flávio Bolsonaro closed at 84%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 6 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.