Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election" at 60%, with 2 venues quoting at the same price. The contract settles by Oct 24, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 60¢ | 40¢ | free | $53 | $21K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 60¢ | 40¢ | 1.7¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
Full settlement wording
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Argentine government, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
If Javier Milei wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designates a specific round, the winner is the candidate elected in that round or, if the election is not decided in that round, the candidate receiving a plurality of votes in that round, in each case regardless of whether that round is followed by any further round or runoff. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 9% · $2.8M 24h volume, both venues
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · Yes 25% · $1.4M 24h volume on Polymarket and Kalshi (Polymarket US publishes none)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 92% · $1.3M 24h volume, both venues
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · Kalshi · Yes 36% · $898K 24h volume on Polymarket and Kalshi (Polymarket US publishes none)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 36% · $556K 24h volume, both venues
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 64% · $303K 24h volume, both venues
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ at execution.
Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election"?
Markets currently price it at 60% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.