Polymarket Argentina Presidential Election First Round odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Javier Milei, at 61%. The market settles by Oct 24, 2027, and $117 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 61¢ reads as a 61% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei compare | 61% | 61¢ | $2 | Trade |
| Axel Kicillof | 21% | 21¢ | $81 | Trade |
| Patricia Bullrich | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Guillermo Moreno | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Myriam Bregman | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Karina Milei | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Sergio Massa | 3% | 3¢ | $19 | Trade |
| Juan Schiaretti | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 1% | 1¢ | $8 | Trade |
Show 8 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Facundo Manes | 1% | 1¢ | $8 | Trade |
| Esteban Bullrich | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Juan Grabois | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Daniel Hadad | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Victoria Villarruel | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mauricio Macri | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Dante Gebel | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Nicolás del Caño | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 61¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 61¢ | 39¢ | free | $2 | $21K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 60¢cheapest to buy | 40¢ | 1.7¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Argentine government, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Scheduled resolution: Oct 24, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket legit? Our review covers safety, sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 61¢ for Javier Milei right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Argentina Presidential Election First Round?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Javier Milei, at 61%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.