Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election" at 5%, with 2 venues quoting within 2 points of each other. The contract settles by Oct 23, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 6¢ | 94¢ | free | $1K | $59K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 4¢cheapest to buy | 96¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
Full settlement wording
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election is Patricia Bullrich, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election"?
Markets currently price it at 5% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.