Polymarket Argentina Presidential Election odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Javier Milei, at 47%. The market settles by Oct 24, 2027, and $11K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 47¢ reads as a 47% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 47% | 47¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Axel Kicillof | 30% | 30¢ | $239 | Trade |
| Sergio Massa | 10% | 10¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Patricia Bullrich compare | 6% | 6¢ | $889 | Trade |
| Myriam Bregman | 1% | 1¢ | $530 | Trade |
| Dante Gebel | 1% | 1¢ | $30 | Trade |
| Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 1% | 1¢ | $150 | Trade |
| Daniel Hadad | 1% | 1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Lionel Messi | 1% | 1¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Victoria Villarruel | <1% | <1¢ | $30 | Trade |
Show 11 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Macri | <1% | <1¢ | $30 | Trade |
| Juan Schiaretti | <1% | <1¢ | $30 | Trade |
| Juan Grabois | <1% | <1¢ | $30 | Trade |
| Esteban Bullrich | <1% | <1¢ | $30 | Trade |
| Facundo Manes | <1% | <1¢ | $30 | Trade |
| Karina Milei | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Alberto Fernández | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Máximo Kirchner | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Guillermo Moreno | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro compare | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Nicolás del Caño | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 47¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 6¢ | 94¢ | free | $889 | $55K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 4¢cheapest to buy | 96¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Will Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢ | >99¢ | free | $0 | $42K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Scheduled resolution: Oct 24, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket legit? Our review covers safety, sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 47¢ for Javier Milei right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Argentina Presidential Election?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Javier Milei, at 47%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.