Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations" at 11%, with 2 venues quoting within 2 points of each other. The contract settles by Jun 30, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 10¢cheapest to buy | 91¢ | free | $755 | $19K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 12¢ | 88¢ | 0.7¢ | $505 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.
Full settlement wording
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Rebeca Grynspan is confirmed as Secretary-General for UN before Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An announcement alone is sufficient to resolve the market.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations"?
Markets currently price it at 11% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.