Polymarket TX-15 House Election odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Bobby Pulido (D), at 86%. The market settles by Nov 3, 2026, and $1K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 86¢ reads as an 86% chance. Polymarket US and Kalshi list it too, and we compare the prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket US and Kalshi: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 86¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on each venue: Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 86¢cheapest to buy | 14¢ | free | $502 | $59K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 88¢ | 13¢ | 0.8¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 87¢cheapest to buy | 14¢ | 0.8¢ | $1K | – | Trade → |
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 14¢ | 87¢ | free | $952 | $67K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 13¢cheapest to buy | 88¢ | 0.8¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 15¢ | 86¢ | 0.9¢ | $258K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Scheduled resolution: Nov 3, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket app review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 86¢ for Bobby Pulido (D) right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on TX-15 House Election?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Bobby Pulido (D), at 86%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket US and Kalshi. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.