Polymarket Rahul Gandhi arrested odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 35%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $62 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 35¢ reads as a 35% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 35¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rahul Gandhi is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Rahul Gandhi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed; (ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, chargesheet, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) he is held for remand, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in a chargesheet, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 35¢ for December 31 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Rahul Gandhi arrested?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 35%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.