Which parties will be in the next Israeli government? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Ra'am, is at 26%. The market settles by Jun 30, 2027, and $2K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 26¢ reads as a 26% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ra'am | 26% | 26¢ | $580 | Trade |
| Otzma Yehudit | 33% | 33¢ | $328 | Trade |
| Together | 60% | 60¢ | $295 | Trade |
| Likud | 30% | 30¢ | $187 | Trade |
| Yashar | 62% | 62¢ | $141 | Trade |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 53% | 53¢ | $96 | Trade |
| United Torah Judaism | 29% | 29¢ | $88 | Trade |
| Amcha Yisrael | 28% | 28¢ | $30 | Trade |
| Shas | 28% | 28¢ | $0 | Trade |
| RZP-Zehut | 27% | 27¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 5 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 26¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | free | $194 | $39K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 4¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Scheduled resolution: Jun 30, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 26¢ for Ra'am right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Ra'am, is at 26%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.