Polymarket NCAA Tournament 2027: Team to advance to the Final Four odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Duke, is at 47%. The market settles by Mar 28, 2027, and $31 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 47¢ reads as a 47% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 47% | 47¢ | $31 | Trade |
| Michigan State | 27% | 27¢ | $0 | Trade |
| UConn | 21% | 21¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Kansas | 21% | 21¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Texas Tech | 17% | 17¢ | $0 | Trade |
| LSU | 17% | 17¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Arizona | 14% | 14¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Louisville | 12% | 12¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Gonzaga | 12% | 12¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Florida State | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| North Carolina | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Nebraska | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| USC | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Baylor | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| UCLA | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Butler | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Indiana | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Providence | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Creighton | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Missouri | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| San Diego State | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| BYU | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Michigan | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| VCU | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Texas A&M | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Iowa | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Ole Miss | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Stanford compare | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Villanova | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Notre Dame | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mississippi State | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Boston College | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Vanderbilt | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Auburn | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Virginia Tech | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| St. Bonaventure | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Oklahoma | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Arkansas | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Dayton | – | – | $0 | Trade |
20 more outcomes are priced on Polymarket: the full board on Polymarket (opens in a new tab).
Close-only for US residentsChance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 47¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 3¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $0 | $560 | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team qualifies for the Final Four (national semifinals) of the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to reach the Final Four (e.g., it is eliminated or not selected for the tournament), this market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament is cancelled, or the Final Four teams are not determined by April 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Mar 28, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 47¢ for Duke right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on NCAA Tournament 2027: Team to advance to the Final Four?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Duke, is at 47%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.