Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship? Odds and prices
"Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship" is priced at 25% on Polymarket, 33% on Polymarket US and 29% on Kalshi, 8 points apart: the venues disagree, so 29% is their average, not a consensus. The contract settles by Jun 30, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 25¢cheapest to buy | 76¢ | 0.6¢ | $413 | $13K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 33¢ | 68¢ | 1.5¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 29¢cheapest to buy | 72¢ | 1.4¢ | $1K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 World Chess Championship.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 World Chess Championship.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 World Chess Championship per the rules of FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 World Chess Championship tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will settle to Yes if Gukesh Dommaraju wins the 2026 FIDE Chess Championship scheduled for December 17, 2026.
If Gukesh Dommaraju wins the World Chess Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship"?
The venues disagree: 25% on Polymarket, 33% on Polymarket US and 29% on Kalshi. The 29% shown is their average; the gap often comes from settlement rules worded differently, compared on this page.
Where can I trade "Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship"?
On Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. Polymarket US takes US residents only; from the US, polymarket.com is close-only. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.