Will Raphinha score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Raphinha score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League" at 8%, with 2 venues quoting within 3 points of each other. The contract settles by Jun 19, 2027; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 10¢ | 91¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | $10K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 7¢cheapest to buy | 94¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League competition.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League competition.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA. If multiple leaders are announced, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 Champions League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/statistics/players/goals/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Raphinha leads the Champions League in goals for the 2026-27 tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Raphinha must have the highest total goals across the entire tournament as documented by the official league statistics. If Raphinha competes for multiple teams within the league during the season, statistics from all teams are combined. If Raphinha does not play any games due to injury, suspension, retirement, or other reasons resolve to No. If multiple players finish tied for the most goals and the league does not officially declare a single leader through a tiebreaker, the market will resolve as a dead heat. "Yes" Contracts on each tied player will pay an equal share of $1. For example, if two players tie, each "Yes" Contract pays $0.50. If three players tie, each "Yes" Contract pays approximately $0.33. No contracts pay $1 minus the Yes payout. If the league officially uses a tiebreaker to determine a single leader, the market resolves based on the league's official winner. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Raphinha score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League"?
Markets currently price it at 8% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Raphinha score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.