Polymarket market

Will ArrowCS eat a bug on stream by December 31? Polymarket odds

Q: What are the Polymarket odds on “Will ArrowCS eat a bug on stream by December 31?”?

On Polymarket, Yes trades at 5%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.

Q: How does this market resolve?

By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.

Q: Is this question on Kalshi too?

We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.

Q: Can I trade this market in my state?

In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.

Q: How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.

Q: What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?

A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.

On Polymarket, Yes trades at 5%. That is down 1 point over the past week. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 5¢ reads as a 5% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.

Trade on Polymarket

Polymarket · odds · updated 11:25 UTC

Yes5%

No95%

–

24h volume on Polymarket

$2K

total volume on Polymarket

open of 2 outcomes

Dec 31, 2026

settles

Polymarket odds on every outcome

Polymarket odds on each outcome of Will ArrowCS eat a bug on stream by December 31?
Outcome	Chance	Yes price	24h volume
Yes	5%	5¢	$0	Trade
No	95%	95¢	–	Trade

Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 5¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · Will ArrowCS eat a bug on stream by December 31

5%▼ 1.1 pts since Sep 28

Yes price

Sep 28<1% – 15% scaleOct 5

Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.

How this market resolves

Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.

Show the full rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ArrowCS eats a bug during any livestreams between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Eating a bug" refers to ArrowCS placing any part of the body of an insect or other arthropod (such as a cricket, ant, beetle, or similar) into his mouth and closing his mouth during a live broadcast.

A qualifying bug may be alive, dead, cooked, raw, or otherwise prepared provided it is a recognizable part of the body of an insect or other arthropod.

The relevant part of the body of an insect or other arthropod must be a discrete item and retain its original physical form. Processed or insect-derived products, such as insect flour, protein bars, or snacks containing ground insects, will not count.

ArrowCS must close his mouth with the relevant bug inside, defined as his two lips being completely shut. Merely holding, licking, or placing a bug in the mouth without closure will not count. If he later removes the bug from his mouth after a qualifying action, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.

The full act as described above must be clearly broadcast on a livestream to qualify. Pre-recorded or edited footage that is not part of a live broadcast will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be qualifying livestream footage.

Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.

How to trade this market on Polymarket

Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 5¢ for Yes right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.

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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.