When will Anthropic release Claude 6? Kalshi odds
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Before Dec 31, 2027, is at 90%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2027, and $29 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 90¢ reads as a 90% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: 2 questions compared ↓
Kalshi odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 82¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 71¢ | 30¢ | free | $216 | $7K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 66¢cheapest to buy | 34¢ | 1.6¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 37¢ | 63¢ | free | $1K | $3K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 51¢ | 49¢ | 1.7¢ | $29 | – | Trade → |
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2027.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Our Kalshi review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 82¢ for Before Sep 30, 2027 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on “When will Anthropic release Claude 6?”?
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Before Dec 31, 2027, is at 90%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.