AI, tech and science prediction markets
AI and tech prediction markets price which company has the best model, when products launch and how often SpaceX flies. 391 tech and science questions are trading on Polymarket and Kalshi, led by “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?”. Most settle on a public ranking or announcement. The busiest are listed first.
Updated
Most traded tech & science markets
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Kalshi · resolves Dec 31, 2026
Best AI at the end of 2026
Kalshi · resolves Oct 12, 2026
OpenAI market share this week
Tech & Science markets priced on both venues
The busiest tech & science markets both venues list. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?
Chance of Yes
5¢ cheaper on KalshiResolves Oct 23, 2026
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
Chance of Yes
8¢ cheaper on PolymarketResolves Dec 31, 2026
Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026?
Chance of Yes
4¢ cheaper on PolymarketResolves Dec 31, 2026
Every tech & science market, priced
Chance is the favourite's price on a board of outcomes, the favoured side of a match, or the named market's Yes price, on its venue.
Tech & Science markets closing this week
Polymarket or Kalshi for tech markets?
Polymarket lists 216 open tech and science events right now, and Kalshi lists 175.
Kalshi runs weekly AI ranking and market-share markets. Polymarket prices model releases and company milestones.
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated, via Polymarket US
- You fund with
- Debit card, ACH, wire in the US; crypto, held as pUSD (Polygon) abroad
- Open tech & science markets
- 216 markets
- Fees
- Polymarket's fees
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated exchange
- You fund with
- ACH, RTP, debit card and 7 more
- Open tech & science markets
- 175 markets
- Fees
- Kalshi's fees
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What tech markets you can trade
AI leads this category. The busiest markets ask which company tops a public model ranking at a set date.
- Which company has the top AI model at month or year end
- When a model or product is released
- How many launches SpaceX makes in a month
- Science milestones and company announcements
What moves tech odds
A new model release moves ranking markets overnight. Launch markets move with each scrub or slip.
Read the rules closely here. The named ranking or source decides the market, not the headlines.
More tech & science markets
Other categories
Common questions
What are AI prediction markets?
Markets on AI outcomes, such as which company has the best model or when a model ships. Each price reads as a probability.
How is the best AI model decided?
By the public ranking the market's rules name, read at the deadline. Check which ranking before you trade.
Are tech markets busy?
Some are, most are not. AI ranking markets draw the most. Check the 24-hour volume before you read much into a price.
Can I trade tech markets in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US or Kalshi. Check your state for any action against specific contracts.