OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027: odds and prices
Markets price "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027" at 14%, with 2 venues quoting within 5 points of each other. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16¢ | 84¢ | 0.5¢ | $1K | $18K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 12¢cheapest to buy | 88¢ | 0.7¢ | $793 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027"?
Markets currently price it at 14% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.