Polymarket US US Measles Cases in 2026 odds
On Polymarket US, the busiest line, Above 5000, is at 88%. That is down 7 points over the past week. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 88¢ reads as an 88% chance. It also trades on Polymarket, linked below; no Kalshi market is matched yet.
Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Polymarket US · odds · updated
Polymarket US odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket US. A Yes contract at 88¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket US's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The contract is “US Measles Cases in 2026?: Above 5000”. A Yes contract pays $1 if the answer is yes, and nothing if not. Polymarket US publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket US
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket US account. It takes US residents only; outside the US, Polymarket is the international exchange. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 88¢ for Above 5000 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket US's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
The same question trades on Polymarket too: Polymarket's page. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket US odds on US Measles Cases in 2026?
On Polymarket US, the busiest line, Above 5000, is at 88%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket US's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here. It also trades on Polymarket: Polymarket's page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket US odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket US?
A taker fee on each contract of 0.0695 × price × (1 − price), largest near 50¢; resting (maker) orders pay nothing. Polymarket US's fees has the detail.