Polymarket Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, October 31, is at 7%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $17K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 7¢ reads as a 7% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 19% | 19¢ | $1K | Trade |
| October 31 | 7% | 7¢ | $16K | Trade |
| March 13Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| July 15Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| March 16Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| June 19Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| June 26Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| June 30Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| April 30Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| September 30Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Show 4 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| March 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| August 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| May 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 19¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 19¢ for December 31 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, October 31, is at 7%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.