Geopolitics and world prediction markets
Geopolitics prediction markets price ceasefires, deals, leadership changes and conflicts. 137 world questions are trading on Polymarket and Kalshi, led by “Will Iran target Iraq?”. Most ask whether something happens by a date, with one contract per deadline. The busiest are listed first, with their settlement dates.
Updated
Most traded world markets
Polymarket · resolves Oct 31, 2026
Will Iran target Iraq?
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...
Polymarket · resolves Oct 31, 2026
Will Iran target an Arab country?
World markets priced on both venues
The busiest world markets both venues list. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Chance of Yes
1¢ cheaper on PolymarketResolves Dec 31, 2026
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
Chance of Yes
1¢ cheaper on KalshiResolves Nov 30, 2026
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
Chance of Yes
Same priceResolves Dec 31, 2026
Every world market, priced
Chance is the favourite's price on a board of outcomes, the favoured side of a match, or the named market's Yes price, on its venue.
Polymarket or Kalshi for world markets?
Polymarket lists 132 open world events right now, and Kalshi lists 5.
Polymarket carries most of the geopolitics volume. Kalshi lists fewer, and they trade in dollars.
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated, via Polymarket US
- You fund with
- Debit card, ACH, wire in the US; crypto, held as pUSD (Polygon) abroad
- Open world markets
- 132 markets
- Fees
- Polymarket's fees
- Regulated
- CFTC-designated exchange
- You fund with
- ACH, RTP, debit card and 7 more
- Open world markets
- 5 markets
- Fees
- Kalshi's fees
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What world markets you can trade
Most world markets are deadlines. Each asks whether an event happens by a date, with a contract for each date.
- Whether a ceasefire holds or a deal is signed by a date
- Whether a leader leaves office
- Military and territorial questions
- Shipping, sanctions and blockades
What moves world odds
News moves these markets, and fast. One statement or strike can reprice a market in minutes.
Settlement rests on credible reporting, as the rules define it. On close calls, the wording decides.
More world markets
Other categories
Common questions
What are geopolitics prediction markets?
Markets on world events, such as ceasefires, deals and leaders. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens by its deadline.
How do world markets settle?
On the reporting the rules name, usually a set of major news sources. Ambiguous events can take longer to settle.
Why do world markets have so many dates?
Each date is its own contract. Together they show when traders expect the event, not just whether.
Can I trade world markets in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US or Kalshi. Check your state for any action against specific contracts.