Polymarket market

Polymarket USS George Washington departs CENTCOM odds

On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 75%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $5K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 75¢ reads as a 75% chance.

Trade on Polymarket

Polymarket · odds · updated

November 1546%
December 3175%
$5K
24h volume on Polymarket
$7K
total volume on Polymarket
2
open of 3 outcomes
Dec 31, 2026
settles

Polymarket odds on every outcome

Polymarket odds on each outcome of USS George Washington departs CENTCOM
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
November 1546%46¢$840Trade
December 3175%75¢$4KTrade
November 30––$520Trade

Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 46¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · December 31
75%▲ 60.5 pts since Oct 3
Yes price
Oct 314% – 75% scaleOct 5

Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.

How this market resolves

Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.

Show the full rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS George Washington (CVN-73) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The Washington will be considered to have departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility or entered the any other area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically exited the CENTCOM area of responsibility.

The departure must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS George Washington left the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS George Washington left the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS George Washington left the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.”

Port calls, temporary stops, crew liberty at an intermediate port, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, is preparing to depart, or is awaiting relief will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying departure has occurred. A qualifying departure will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.

How to trade this market on Polymarket

  1. Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
  2. Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
  3. Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 46¢ for November 15 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
  4. Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.

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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.

Common questions

What are the Polymarket odds on USS George Washington departs CENTCOM?

On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 75%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.

How does this market resolve?

By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.

Is this question on Kalshi too?

We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.

Can I trade this market in my state?

In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?

A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.