XRP price prediction: Ripple targets $900 million, the token does not follow

Ripple told its Swell conference in New York on Wednesday that the company intends to close 2026 with an annualised product revenue run rate of around $900 million. The XRP price did not react: on Thursday morning XRP traded at $1.29, down 2.6 percent from 24 hours earlier (Kraken, as of October 29, early morning). Two things are documented here, and they belong apart: the company Ripple is growing, the token XRP is falling. Our assessment follows further below: the two figures are tied together more loosely than the announcement suggests.

If you hold XRP, this is not a technicality. It is the question of whether a corporate headline is a reason to buy. Where the price can go over a horizon of months is covered in our XRP price prediction. This piece stays with today and with the dates that fall due in the coming weeks.

What Ripple put on the table in New York on Wednesday

The figure in question is a revenue run rate. A run rate is the revenue of the most recently measured period projected onto twelve months, so not an annual result but a snapshot multiplied by twelve. Ripple names around $900 million and traces it back to five areas: payments, custody, its stablecoin, prime brokerage and treasury. The Block reported this on October 28.

The company added further figures. The market capitalisation of its in-house stablecoin RLUSD stands at $2.6 billion. Cumulative payment volume is expected to approach $150 billion by the end of the year. The number of customers using more than one Ripple product has tripled this year. Ripple president Monica Long called it the best year in the company's history.

Ripple is not listed and publishes no audited quarterly figures. The $900 million is the company's own expectation for how its year will end, not an audited number. Ripple did not supply a breakdown by product. Anyone putting the figure in context should read that alongside it.

XRP price at $1.29: the daily range on Thursday morning

XRP changed hands at $1.2906 on Thursday morning. The high of the past 24 hours was $1.3429, the low $1.2848, and the volume-weighted average $1.3141 (Kraken, XRP/USD, as of October 29, early morning). That puts the range at 4.5 percent of the price.

Against the rest of the field, XRP is falling harder. Bitcoin lost 1.8 percent over the same 24 hours to $79,824, Ethereum 2.1 percent to $2,308, Solana 2.4 percent to $99.85. XRP gave up 2.6 percent. The token is therefore not the winner of a good corporate headline but, on this morning, the weakest of the four large assets.

The level at which the price sits is worth noting. Our XRP analysis of October 28 named $1.29 as the level that decides, ahead of the escrow release, whether sellers keep the upper hand. Since then the price has reached exactly that level and has not yet traded below it: the low was $1.2848, and the current reading sits just above. The level is therefore not broken, but it has not been defended either. The market is testing it right now.

The difference between Ripple revenue and the XRP price

This is the point the headline obscures. Ripple is a privately held company. Anyone holding XRP holds no stake in that company, no claim on profit and no voting right. There is no dividend, no buyback out of profits and no profit sharing. If Ripple's revenue rises, not a single legal claim attached to XRP rises with it.

The only mechanism through which Ripple's business can reach the price at all runs via demand for the token itself. That happens in three cases. First, when payments are actually settled through XRP as a bridge currency and bought on the market for that purpose. Second, when applications run on the XRP Ledger and fees accrue in XRP. Third, when investors buy because they trust the company to generate the second and third waves.

That is precisely the weak spot. Two of the reported growth areas do not need XRP. RLUSD is a dollar stablecoin, not XRP demand. Prime brokerage and treasury are services for institutional clients that settle in dollars; Ripple explicitly allows institutional clients to post RLUSD as collateral. Payments can use XRP but do not have to. That explains how a good corporate number and a falling token can stand side by side without either contradicting the other.

RLUSD, Ripple Prime and Treasury: the three revenue carriers

RLUSD is the company's own stablecoin, a token whose value is pegged to the US dollar and backed by reserves. Ripple puts its market capitalisation at $2.6 billion, a gain of more than 88 percent this year. The money in a stablecoin is made above all on the interest earned on the reserves held against it.

Ripple Prime is the institutional business: trading, clearing and financing from a single desk. Hedge fund Brevan Howard extended its work with Ripple into this area in October. In the same month Ripple Prime added swaps on more than 100 markets, with trading and settlement around the clock. Ripple Treasury is aimed at companies managing their liquidity.

Both areas stem largely from acquisitions made in 2025 worth more than $2.4 billion, among them Hidden Road for $1.25 billion and GTreasury for $1 billion. That is an important piece of context: a considerable share of the run rate is acquired revenue now consolidated into the books, not revenue grown under its own steam.

The OCC approval for Ripple National Trust Bank

On October 26 the US banking regulator OCC granted Ripple final approval for a national trust bank. A trust bank under OCC supervision may hold and administer assets for third parties but may not take deposits and may not lend. For Ripple that means one thing above all: custody of RLUSD reserves and of client assets can take place in house and under federal supervision.

For holders in Europe this licence changes nothing immediately. The approval applies in the United States and is aimed at institutional clients. Anyone buying XRP in Germany still depends on the providers licensed here under MiCA. The licence is a signal all the same, because it turns Ripple from a pure software vendor into a supervised custodian.

The extended work with Bank of New York on tokenised trade finance on the XRP Ledger points the same way. Aviva Investors has launched a tokenised share class of its £22 billion liquidity fund on the same blockchain, with an initial investment of £50 million. These are real applications on the ledger, and they are the part of the announcement most likely to reach XRP.

XRP ETFs: $1.5 billion in net assets and barely any inflows

Since the American spot ETFs on XRP launched there has been a second yardstick alongside the price. Total net assets of these funds stood at around $1.5 billion on October 26. Measured against an XRP market capitalisation in the region of $83 billion, that is just under 2 percent.

The movement matters more than the stock. In the week to October 23 the funds took in net inflows of only around 1.5 million XRP, equivalent to about $2.1 million. On individual days in October inflows stood at zero, and on October 26 there was a net outflow of around $3.6 million. To put the situation in numbers: the fund channel is open, but it is drawing almost no money at present.

This is the channel on which most price expectations for XRP are built. To see whether the situation turns, the daily net flows of these funds are the most direct measure. How such products are accessible in Germany and how they differ from an ETN is set out in our overview of crypto ETFs in Germany.

Escrow on November 1: up to 1 billion XRP

Ripple opens its escrow accounts on their regular schedule on November 1. Escrow here describes a contractually locked holding from which a fixed amount is released each month; whatever is not needed goes back into the lock. Up to 1 billion XRP can be released. The holding in the escrow accounts stood at around 31.40 billion XRP on October 24.

The figure sounds large, and it is regularly read wrong. In October 700 million XRP went straight back into the lock. What counts is therefore not the amount released but the part that does not flow back. That value becomes visible only in the days after November 1, and it is publicly traceable on the XRP Ledger.

XRP year to date: down 28.8 percent

XRP has lost 28.8 percent since the start of the year (CryptoRank, as of October 28). Over twelve months it is more than 50 percent. The token is therefore heading for its weakest calendar year since 2022, when 59.2 percent was lost. For comparison: in 2024 XRP gained 235.7 percent, in 2023 it was 82.5 percent, and 2025 closed 11.6 percent down.

This year too XRP stands worse than the other large assets: Bitcoin is around 8 percent below the start of the year, Ethereum about 20 percent, Solana 17 percent. The all-time high of $3.65 is far away; in August XRP briefly fell below $1. These figures come from the year-to-date overview published by CryptoSlate on October 28.

The contrast is therefore measurable and not merely narrated: the company reports its strongest year, the token is on course for its weakest in four years. Both come from the same house and the same period.

Holding period and tax before the turn of the year in Germany

This is where the concrete action arises, and it does not hang on the price. In Germany, gains on the sale of cryptocurrencies are tax free after a holding period of more than twelve months. Within those twelve months the personal income tax rate applies, with an exemption threshold of 1,000 euros per year covering all private disposals together. Once it is exceeded, the entire gain is taxable, not only the part above the threshold.

Two things are therefore worth checking before December 31. First, the purchase date of each individual position: anyone who bought during the current year and wants to sell at a loss can offset that loss only against gains from other private disposals in the same year or carry it forward. Second, the completeness of the records, because the burden of proof lies with you. A tax tool with a portfolio tracker pulls transactions together from the exchanges and assigns the holding periods position by position.

We track the state of the planned reform of the holding period on an ongoing basis at crypto holding period: reform and status. Until something is decided there, the twelve-month rule applies unchanged.

Our assessment: business and token are drifting apart

From the newsroom's point of view, Wednesday's announcement is a good corporate headline and not a price signal. The structure of the named growth carriers argues for that reading: RLUSD with a market capitalisation of $2.6 billion is a dollar token, prime brokerage and treasury settle in dollars, and a large share of the run rate comes from acquisitions worth more than $2.4 billion in 2025. None of these three items necessarily creates demand for XRP.

Against that reading stands the fact that the infrastructure does indeed hang on the XRP Ledger. The work with Bank of New York and the tokenised fund share class from Aviva Investors run there. If such applications gain volume, demand for the token arises, by way of fees and reserve requirements. That is a slow road, not an event that shows up in a single trading day.

The difference becomes measurable in the fund flows and in the escrow return, not in revenue announcements. A net outflow of $3.6 million on one day and inflows close to zero on several October days say more about the short-term picture than a run rate for the full year. No buy recommendation follows from this, and a total loss remains possible with any crypto asset.

XRP price prediction: Ripple's revenue will not carry the price on its own

Three steps for making sense of the coming days:

1. Watch the $1.29 level. The daily low was $1.2848. If this area holds into November 1, last week's range stays intact; if it gives way, the August low below $1 is the next reference. Where to trade XRP and at what fees is shown in our comparison of crypto exchanges.
2. Read the escrow return after November 1. What counts is not the billion released but the amount that does not go back into the lock. In October 700 million XRP flowed back.
3. Check your own custody and holding periods. Anyone holding positions across the turn of the year should have purchase dates and records in order. For self-custody, a look at the hardware wallet comparison is worthwhile.

(As of October 29, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)