Ethereum price prediction: can buyers hold $2,000 as ETF outflows shrink 99 percent?

US ether ETFs lost a net $1.32 million on Tuesday, November 10. On the Monday before, the figure had been $184.5 million. Selling pressure from the funds has thus all but vanished, while ether stands at around $2,086 on Wednesday evening, roughly 1,881 euros, a good two percent above its level on Tuesday evening.

The facts: outflows on the fourth consecutive trading day shrank by around 99 percent, Tuesday's inflation data came in hotter than expected, and US producer prices follow on Friday. Our assessment comes further down: the drying up of outflows takes pressure off the price, but it does not yet replace fresh demand.

Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered in our Ethereum price prediction. This piece sticks to the next few days: fund flows, Friday's release and the levels that ETH has to be measured against until the Fed meeting on December 9.

ETF flows on November 10: $1.32 million instead of $184.5 million

According to SoSoValue data published by TokenPost on Wednesday morning, Tuesday's small outflow was spread across three products. The Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust shed $1.96 million and the 21Shares fund TETH $0.41 million. On the other side, BlackRock's staked ether fund ETHB took in $1.05 million. All the other funds reported no movement, including BlackRock's large ETHA fund.

That marks a clear break from Monday, November 9. On that day investors withdrew $184.51 million, $119.28 million from ETHA alone, plus $25 million from Grayscale's Mini Trust and $19.1 million from Fidelity's FETH. The run of outflows began on November 5 and now spans four trading days. Notably, the small outflow fell on the very day of the hot inflation data.

Turnover is the interesting part. On Tuesday, shares worth $712.56 million changed hands, $547.36 million of them in ETHA. Trading was heavy, then, but purchases and sales largely cancelled each other out. Assets across all ether ETFs stood at $11.64 billion, around 4.63 percent of ether's total market value. Cumulative net inflows since launch amount to $11.74 billion.

How ETFs work: redemptions put ether straight onto the spot market

A spot ETF holds real ether in a custodian's vault. When a large investor redeems shares, the fund has to sell a matching amount of ether or deliver it to the dealer handling the redemption. At today's price, an outflow of $184 million corresponds to around 88,000 ETH weighing on the market on top of normal selling.

If the outflow falls to $1.32 million, that is only a little over 630 ETH. The fund market stops acting as a seller. It has not yet turned into a buyer, though. A recovery needs days with inflows, and there have been none since the start of November.

A second point explains why fund flows have such a strong effect on the price: together the ETFs hold less than five percent of all ether, yet they set the direction for many short-term traders. Anyone trading on derivatives exchanges reads the figures every morning and positions accordingly.

October inflation: 0.4 percent and the debate over a Fed hike

The trigger for Tuesday's sell-off came from Washington. US consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October from the previous month, against expectations of 0.3 percent. In September the increase had been 0.6 percent. The core rate excluding energy and food rose 0.3 percent; whether that was above or in line with expectations is reported differently by different houses, with figures of 0.2 and 0.3 percent cited.

According to concurring reports, Fed governor Christopher Waller had said before the release that a core rate of around 0.3 percent or higher would mean a half-point hike in December also had to be considered. That threshold has now been reached. The central bank decides on December 9.

For ether this is no side issue. Rising interest rates make safe assets such as US Treasuries more attractive and raise the cost of the loans traders use to fund leveraged positions. Experience shows that ether reacts more strongly to this than bitcoin: over seven days ETH lost 14.1 percent according to CoinGecko, bitcoin 7.5 percent.

Producer prices on November 13: the next date for ether

On Friday, November 13, the US Labor Department publishes October producer prices at 8:30 am Eastern time. The producer price index measures what manufacturers and service providers charge for their goods before they reach the shops. A sharp rise is seen as a harbinger of further price increases for consumers.

For the Fed, the figure is a second test alongside consumer prices. If producer prices also come in hot, the debate over a large rate hike in December is likely to get louder. A weak reading, on the other hand, would make Tuesday look like an outlier.

On the same Friday, ether options expire on the derivatives exchanges; we described the role of this expiry on November 9. Both events therefore fall on a day when short swings in either direction are more likely than on an ordinary Friday.

Since yesterday: ether from $2,078 to $2,086

In our Ethereum analysis on Tuesday, ether stood at around $2,078 in the afternoon. That piece dealt with Vitalik Buterin's view of ether as a store of value and with Bitmine's purchases. Since then the picture has shifted in three respects.

First, after the inflation data ETH briefly slipped to $2,037, the low of the past 24 hours according to CoinGecko, and then recovered to $2,097. Second, the ETF outflows, which at $184.5 million on Monday were still the sellers' main argument on Tuesday, have practically dried up. Third, the $2,000 zone is still holding, even though it was seriously tested on Tuesday.

The weakness against bitcoin is unchanged. One ether costs 0.02797 BTC on Wednesday evening; as early as November 9 we had measured the ratio at its weakest level since July. Over 30 days ETH is down 16.8 percent, it is a good quarter below its early-October high near $2,800, and around 58 percent below its all-time high of $4,946 from August 2025.

Whales and funds: 17,800 ETH sold, 10,792 ETH bought

On the blockchain the picture is split. Analyst Ali Martinez reports, according to crypto.news, that large addresses sold around 17,800 ETH over the past week, roughly $40 million. At the same time, a group of addresses tracked under the name "7 Siblings" bought 10,792 ETH at an average price of $2,038.

The analytics service Lookonchain also attributes two sales of 1,000 ETH each, on November 10 and 11, to an address linked to the Ethereum Foundation, together a little over $4 million. Measured against daily turnover, that is small. Such sales are closely watched, however, because the foundation partly funds its spending on research and grants through ether sales.

The largest single buyer remains Bitmine. The company most recently reported holdings of 6.07 million ETH after a further purchase of 9,587 ETH. The "7 Siblings" average price of $2,038 sits almost exactly at Tuesday's daily low. Buyers of this size are evidently stepping in within the zone that traders regard as support.

Liquidations: $192 million in long positions in 24 hours

The derivatives market shows how violent Tuesday was. According to CoinGlass data analysed by crypto.news on Wednesday morning, ether positions worth more than $258 million were forcibly closed within 24 hours. Around $192 million, or 74 percent, of that were long positions, meaning bets on rising prices. Across the whole crypto market, liquidations totalled about $723 million.

A liquidation occurs when a leveraged trader's collateral is no longer enough to cover the loss. The exchange then closes the position automatically, selling ether into a market that is already falling. A chain of liquidations can thus accelerate a decline that would have been much smaller on the news alone.

Anyone trading with leverage can see from this Tuesday how quickly an inflation print can close a position. At five times leverage, a drop of just under 20 percent is enough to lose the entire stake, at ten times just under ten percent. Tuesday's range, from $2,097 to $2,037, was around three percent; on days with derivatives events, swings twice that size are not unusual.

ETH chart levels: the zone between $2,005 and $2,060

crypto.news describes the technical picture as follows: on Wednesday morning ether was trading at the lower Bollinger Band at $2,062. The Bollinger Band is a channel around the moving average whose width depends on volatility; a price at the lower edge is considered heavily depressed. The authors see support between $2,040 and $2,060, and below that at the low of the move near $2,005. If the $2,000 mark breaks for good, they name $1,900 as the next target.

On the upside, the hurdles lie at $2,128 to $2,130, then at $2,200 and at the 20-day average around $2,260. In between lies the 200-day line, which we measured at $2,154 on Tuesday. The "Know Sure Thing" indicator, a gauge of a move's strength, stood at minus 107.34, still below its signal line. Downside momentum is therefore not broken, only slowed.

Sentiment fits the picture. The Fear and Greed Index from Alternative.me stands at 29 points on Wednesday, in the "fear" range, after 32 on Tuesday. According to Santiment, on November 10 there were 0.88 optimistic social media posts about ether for every pessimistic one, 0.82 for bitcoin and 0.49 for XRP.

Bull and bear case for ether until the Fed meeting on December 9

In favour of a recovery is the fact that last week's biggest seller, the ETF side, has dropped out. Large buyers are stepping in at $2,038, the liquidation wave has already flushed many leveraged long positions out of the market, and sentiment is depressed enough for good news to surprise. A close above $2,130 would open the way to the 200-day line at $2,154.

Against it stands the interest rate side. If producer prices also come in high on Friday, a December rate hike moves closer, and ether has recently looked weaker than bitcoin in such phases. Add to that the sales by large addresses and the weakness against bitcoin that has persisted since July. A daily close below $2,000 would darken the picture considerably.

Our assessment: Tuesday's figures are a first sign of relief, nothing more yet. The decline in outflows of around 99 percent is documented; so is the fact that there has not been a single day of inflows since November 5. As long as the ETFs do not return to net buying and producer prices give no all-clear, a sideways phase between $2,000 and $2,260 is more likely than a quick rally. The main argument against this view is that sentiment is already very depressed and a positive surprise on Friday could trigger a countermove.

Ether in Europe: staking and ETPs instead of US ETFs

As a retail investor in the EU, you generally cannot buy the US ETFs themselves because they lack the key information document required under EU law. Anyone who wants to hold ether via the stock market turns to exchange-traded products on ether, listed for example on Xetra; which ones exist and what they cost is shown in our overview on buying crypto ETFs in Germany.

For buying ether directly, the rule since the end of Germany's transitional period on December 30, 2025 is that providers need authorisation under the European crypto regulation MiCA. Which platforms have it and what buying ETH there costs is set out in our crypto exchange comparison. If you intend to hold ether for the long term anyway, you will find providers and yields for staking in our staking comparison.

Ether ETFs: only fresh inflows will lift ETH above $2,260

1. Keep an eye on Friday. Producer prices at 8:30 am Eastern time on November 13 and the options expiry on the same day are the next tests. If you are buying, you can spread your entry over several days; you can compare the fees for doing so among the crypto exchanges with MiCA authorisation.
2. Keep leverage low. Tuesday cost $192 million in long positions. If you trade futures contracts, work out beforehand at what price your own position will be closed; platforms and their margin rules are covered in our perp DEX comparison.

(As of November 11, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy. Crypto assets can fluctuate sharply, and a total loss is possible.)