ADA Price Prediction: 2 Key Levels Could Decide the Next Big Move in November

Three Things to Know

• Tens of thousands of Cardano holders still have ADA parked in retired stake pools that pay nothing.
• ADA trades below both its 50-day and 200-day averages, and sellers still lead the trend.
• Traders are watching whether the floor near $0.18 holds or gives way.

A large pool of Cardano stake has gone quiet. On-chain data shows tens of thousands of delegators never moved their ADA after their stake pools shut down, so those coins earn no rewards.

The drift says something about holder attention after a sharp monthly drop. Disengaged owners rarely step in to buy dips, and the chart already favors sellers. Traders now want to know which nearby level breaks first.

131 Million ADA Sits in Retired Pools Earning Nothing

Data from blockchain explorer Cexplorer shows 59,025 Cardano delegators still have about 131.6 million ADA assigned to retired stake pools. That stake, worth roughly $26 million, earns zero rewards.

Cexplorer counts 2,720 officially retired pools. A 2023 community count on r/Cardano found 16,370 such accounts, so today's figure is 3.6x larger. Cardano's official X account calls the problem "sticky stake." One retired pool still has over 50 million ADA delegated to it.

Staking on Cardano yields about 2.5% to 3% a year. At that rate, holders miss out on 3.3 million to 4 million ADA a year. That is roughly $653,000 to $784,000 in lost rewards. The average affected wallet holds around 2,230 ADA. Its owner forgoes only $11 to $13 a year. The real signal is that many holders have simply stopped paying attention.

The funds remain safe and spendable. Redelegating costs a normal transaction fee, and rewards resume after a few five-day epochs. Rewards from skipped epochs cannot be reclaimed.

ADA Trades Under Both Key Averages After a Steep Monthly Slide

Cardano (ADA) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView

ADA traded near $0.20 on the day, roughly unchanged over 24 hours. That calm session sits inside a much rougher stretch. The token lost about 4% over the past week and about 27% over the past month.

Those numbers describe a clear downtrend. A flat day after a slide like that often reflects a pause in selling. Buyers have yet to show they can push the price higher on their own.

The moving averages tell the same story. A moving average smooths out daily swings by tracking the average closing price over a set number of days. ADA trades below its 50-day average near $0.22. It also sits under its 200-day average near $0.23.

When price holds below both lines, those averages tend to act as ceilings. Traders who bought higher often sell into any bounce toward them to cut losses. That steady supply overhead makes rallies harder to sustain.

The longer view shows how deep the damage runs. ADA peaked at $3.09 in September 2021. Today it trades about 94% below that record.

That gap helps explain the drift in the staking data. A token stuck this far from its highs gives owners little reason to check their wallets.

Sellers Keep the Upper Hand as Momentum Fades

RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, sits near 40 on the daily chart. That reading is weak. It also sits well above 30, the line that marks oversold territory.

That gap matters for anyone hoping for a quick rebound. Oversold readings often attract bargain hunters, and ADA has not reached that point yet. Sellers still have room to push the price lower before momentum looks stretched.

Other gauges back up that cautious view. The MACD, a tool that compares short and long price averages, remains below its signal line. In plain terms, momentum is still pointing down.

Trend strength readings show sellers leading a real trend. Until those signals turn, the chart offers no sign of a reversal.

$0.18 Is the Floor Bulls Cannot Afford to Lose

The nearest support sits near $0.18, the floor buyers need to defend in the days ahead. A clean break below it would hand sellers another win and likely extend the slide.

The next support below waits near $0.17. Little stands in between, and a drop of that size would fit the current trend.

Resistance sits closer to the upside, near $0.21. A close above that level would be the first real sign of relief. It would show buyers can absorb the selling that has capped every bounce this month.

Even then, the 50-day line stands just above as the next hurdle. Bulls would need to clear both levels before the chart could start to look healthier.

Which Way ADA Breaks Over the Next 72 Hours

• Bullish: A daily close above $0.21 would put the 50-day line near $0.22 in play as the next target. Buyers would need to hold their gains for this to count. A slip back under $0.20 would cancel the setup.
• Bearish: Closing below the floor would open the way toward the next support, in line with the seller-led trend. A recovery back above $0.20 would void that path and return ADA to its recent range.

Bears Stay in Charge Until $0.21 Falls

The bias stays bearish while ADA trades under that first resistance level. Sellers still lead the trend, and neither key average has come back within reach.

Weak momentum cuts both ways. RSI has not reached oversold, so a sudden short-covering bounce is still possible. The same soft reading also leaves the floor exposed to a fast break if selling picks up.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.