Texas Senate Race Results: Talarico vs Paxton and What It Means for America's Bitcoin State

At 03:14 CET, James Talarico led Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race by 783,329 votes, 58.3 to 40.1 percent with 41.3 percent of the expected vote counted, according to NBC News, based on AP data. No winner has been called. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the US Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, and Donald Trump won the state by 13.7 points two years ago. It is also the first US state to buy Bitcoin for a state reserve, so the result reaches well beyond the Senate majority.

Texas Senate race: the key facts

• Status (03:14 CET): Talarico 2,513,352 votes (58.3 percent), Paxton 1,730,023 (40.1 percent).
• Governor: Gina Hinojosa leads Greg Abbott 56.0 to 42.7 percent with 42 percent counted.
• 2024: Trump won Texas 6,393,597 to 4,835,250, Ted Cruz won his Senate seat 53.1 to 44.6 percent.
• Bitcoin reserve: $10 million authorized by law, about $5 million bought through BlackRock's IBIT in November 2025.
• Prediction market: Talarico 97.5 percent, Paxton 1.9 percent on Polymarket (03:14 CET).

Texas election results: read the early numbers with care

Early in-person voting ran 60 to 39 for Talarico, and the Election Day ballots reported so far ran 68 to 31. Most of Texas closed its polls at 02:00 CET, and El Paso and Hudspeth counties, on Mountain Time, followed at 03:00 CET. County reporting moves unevenly, so a large lead at this stage can still shrink.

Texas 2024 vs 2026: where the state moved

The suburbs tell the story so far. Tarrant County, around Fort Worth, went from R+5.1 in the 2024 presidential race to D+21.0 in the Senate race. Collin County, north of Dallas, went from R+11.1 to D+13.3. Harris County, home to Houston, stood at D+5.5 two years ago and is now at no votes yet. These figures compare early voting with a full presidential count, so the final swing will be smaller. Even a much smaller swing would be historic: Republicans have held every statewide office in Texas for decades.

County	Trump vs Harris 2024	Paxton vs Talarico 2026	Counted
Dallas	D+22.2	D+47.8	75 %
Tarrant	R+5.1	D+21.0	76 %
Bexar	D+9.7	D+37.6	77 %
Collin	R+11.1	D+13.3	78 %
Denton	R+13.2	D+8.8	71 %
Williamson	R+2.4	D+23.2	78 %
Montgomery	R+45.5	R+21.1	68 %
Fort Bend	D+1.6	D+29.6	55 %

Texas Bitcoin reserve: what the result means for crypto

Governor Greg Abbott signed the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve law in 2025. It lets the state comptroller buy, hold and sell Bitcoin from a $10 million fund. In November 2025 the state bought about $5 million of BlackRock's IBIT as a first step, and in 2026 the comptroller's office began working toward holding coins directly. Gina Hinojosa leads Greg Abbott 56.0 to 42.7 percent with 42 percent counted. The reserve runs through the state, so the governor's race and the legislature matter more for it than the Senate seat.

Crypto money was on Paxton's side in the primary. Fellowship PAC, led by Tether's head of government affairs, reported $1.75 million supporting him by April. The advocacy group Stand With Crypto lists no crypto statements from Talarico. With the CLARITY Act stuck at 49 of the 60 votes it needs, every new senator counts in the next attempt, which we follow in our CLARITY Act explainer.

Why Texas matters for the Senate majority

Republicans went into the night with 53 seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four for the majority, and Texas is one of the seats that could deliver it. All calls and the full Senate table are in our midterm results live ticker. Two more state stories from tonight: why Florida's governor race got so close and crypto's $50 million bet against Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

What Polymarket says about Texas

Traders put Talarico at 97.5 percent at 03:14 CET, on a market with $19.0 million in volume. That shows what the market expects and is no forecast from us; prediction markets moved quickly tonight and can overreact to early counts. If you hold coins through a week like this, compare regulated crypto exchanges and crypto brokers first. This article is not investment advice.