Bitcoin Holds Strong in Early October as Liquidation Clusters Build  

Bitcoin has started October on firmer footing than its historical seasonal pattern would suggest, but rising leverage around several key price levels could make the next move more volatile.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Andrew Kamsky, Bitcoin’s first three days of October have historically been its weakest three-day stretch of the month, with an average decline of 0.66%. This year, however, Bitcoin's price has so far held up better. 

Bitcoin closed September at $83,574 and October 3 at $84,743, representing a 1.40% gain. 

Looking specifically from the October 1 close to the October 3 close, Bitcoin price declined just 0.14%, compared with the historical average decline of 0.66%. 

As of October 4, CryptoQuant put Bitcoin near $85,132, approximately 1.86% above its September close.

September itself was also stronger than its historical pattern. Bitcoin gained 6.39% during the month, compared with a historical average decline of 4.02%, according to Kamsky.

However, while Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, derivatives positioning suggests that a calm start does not necessarily mean a calm October. Crypto market data analysis firms CoinGlass and Glassnode have identified significant liquidity zones around $83K–$90K.

CoinGlass highlighted a concentration of  liquidation liquidity around $87,600 on the upside and $83,400 on the downside in its three-day Bitcoin liquidation heatmap on October 5:

Glassnode's analysis also points to significant positioning above and below the market. The firm warned on October 4, that Bitcoin’s largest overhead liquidation cluster sits around $90,000; however, other smaller clusters are located near $83,000 and even around $75,000. 

Taken together, the data puts Bitcoin in a relatively narrow zone where both sides of the derivatives market have meaningful liquidation exposure. 

With BTC trading around $86,000 on October 5, a break below $83,400 could expose lower liquidity, while a move through the $87,600–$90,000 area could expose a significant cluster of short liquidations and potentially accelerate an upside move.

There is also a broader market-cycle argument behind the current setup.

Glassnode lead analyst AntiFragile notes that Bitcoin is currently trading about 13% below its long-term average valuation, known as the Mean MVRV Price. This valuation level is calculated by multiplying Bitcoin’s Realized Price by its long-term average Market Value to Realized Value ratio.

According to him, in each of the last three cycles, Bitcoin did most of its climbing after the first close above the level. He notes that cycle tops typically followed more than a year after that reclaim.

That historical pattern, however,  does not establish that the current cycle will follow the same path. 

Bitcoin’s strong start to October suggests the market is showing resilience, but concentrated leverage around key price levels could amplify the next move in either direction. 

For traders and investors, the key question is whether BTC can continue holding its recent strength and eventually reclaim higher valuation levels, or whether a move toward lower liquidation zones triggers renewed selling pressure.

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