Jeremy Bragin
Robinhood
Prediction markets inside the Robinhood app, with custom combos and a capped commission
4.3/ 5
CoinStats scoreBest for: existing Robinhood customers.
- Regulator
- CFTC: offers event contracts through Robinhood Derivatives, a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant, on Kalshi, ForecastEx, CDNA and Rothera
- Fee on $100 at 50¢
- $2.00 to $4.00
- Minimum deposit
- Not confirmed
- Deposit options
- ACH, debit card and wire
- Settlement and payout
- Usually within an hour of resolution; its help pages allow 1–2 business days.
- States
- No sports contracts in MD, and no new sports positions in MI or NV
Scored on our published method, from what Robinhood publishes.
Open RobinhoodHow we make money
CoinStats may earn a commission if you open an account through links on this page. No venue pays for its score: it comes from the same published method, applied to every app.
Is Robinhood’s prediction market legit?
Yes. This is not an offshore app bolted onto a brokerage. Robinhood runs its prediction markets through a separate subsidiary, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.
That company is a futures commission merchant registered with the CFTC and a member of the National Futures Association. It takes your orders and holds your event-contract cash.
Think of it in four layers. The app is Robinhood’s. The broker is Robinhood Derivatives. The exchange lists each contract and matches trades. Its clearinghouse guarantees the $1 payout.
Robinhood routes to four CFTC-registered exchanges. Kalshi carried the hub’s first contracts in March 2025. ForecastEx belongs to Interactive Brokers. Crypto.com’s exchange has taken some football contracts since September 8, 2026.
The fourth is partly Robinhood’s own. Rothera is the former LedgerX exchange. A joint venture of Robinhood and the trading firm Susquehanna bought 90% of it in January 2026.
Robinhood does not own a majority of Rothera, but it names most of its board. Rothera’s website lists one clearing member: Robinhood Derivatives. Under a September 2026 deal, Robinhood will also take stakes in Crypto.com and OG.com.
So “legit” holds at every layer. It does not settle state law. Several states call Robinhood’s sports contracts illegal gambling, and the courts disagree.
Is Robinhood’s prediction market safe? How your money is held
Start with where the money sits. Event-contract cash lives at Robinhood Derivatives, apart from your stock and crypto balances. Robinhood sweeps money between them automatically.
Robinhood Derivatives keeps that cash in a segregated account for cleared-swaps customers. CFTC data for July 31, 2026 show $149 million there, against $26.2 million required.
Now the line most people miss. In Robinhood’s own words, Robinhood Derivatives “is not FDIC insured or SIPC protected.” Its stock brokerage is a SIPC member. Event contracts are not covered.
If Robinhood Derivatives failed, bankruptcy rules for commodity brokers would decide what customers get back. That means CFTC Part 190, not an insurance fund.
Positions are paid in full when you buy. There is no margin, so a contract can never demand more money than you put in.
Getting in takes a valid Social Security number, a US address and an age of 18 or more. Event contracts then need a second approval, based on your experience, investment profile and state.
Logins and account changes trigger two-factor checks, such as a device approval or a text code. Robinhood may also ask for a selfie or a photo of your ID.
Is Robinhood’s prediction market gambling?
Robinhood says no. Its help center calls event contracts financial derivatives and states plainly: “these are not bets.” Its position is that the CFTC, not state gaming boards, oversees them.
In your wallet, the line is thin. You pay up to 99¢ for a contract that pays $1 or nothing. Robinhood’s own opt-out page lists the problem-gambling helpline.
The real difference is who takes the other side. A sportsbook sets the odds and books your wager. On Robinhood, the exchange matches you with another trader. Robinhood Derivatives says it does not make markets.
Judges disagree about what that makes it. In April 2026 the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi against New Jersey. An agreed court order now shields Robinhood there too.
Robinhood’s own appeal went the other way. On August 28, 2026, the Ninth Circuit ruled that sports contracts are not “swaps” under federal law. That leaves Nevada free to apply its gaming laws.
Robinhood has asked the Supreme Court to hear the case. The Sixth Circuit, which has Robinhood’s Michigan appeal, ruled against Kalshi on September 25. None of these rulings questions Robinhood’s federal registration.
The fight is about sports. Every case is on our prediction market legal tracker.
Robinhood prediction market lawsuits and complaints
Search for Robinhood’s prediction markets and a Reddit thread titled “Prediction markets are very risky” sits near the top. Take it seriously. Then separate the mechanics from the lawsuits.
The mechanics are documented. An immediate-or-cancel order cancels at once if no one will trade at your price. A “stricter area” error blocks trades near restricted states. And the exchange’s result stands, even when a sports app shows another score.
The lawsuits below are about legality. As of Robinhood’s July 2026 quarterly report, none had ended in a judgment against it.
- Maryland orders a stop Maryland’s gaming regulator ordered Robinhood Derivatives to stop offering sports event contracts in the state. Robinhood’s help pages now say Maryland residents cannot trade them. Source
- Nevada, then the Ninth Circuit A federal judge refused to block Nevada’s gaming laws, and Robinhood stopped new sports contracts there on December 1. The Ninth Circuit affirmed on August 28, 2026. Robinhood has asked the Supreme Court to review it. Source
- Customer class actions Customers say its sports contracts are illegal gambling and want their losses back. Four suits are combined in federal court in Northern California, and another came from Massachusetts. Robinhood wants most claims sent to arbitration. Source
- Wisconsin and Kentucky sue Wisconsin sued Robinhood, Kalshi and Coinbase, calling sports contracts illegal betting and a public nuisance. Kentucky filed a similar suit on June 17. Both states are fighting to keep their cases in state court. Source
- Michigan’s agreement Robinhood agreed in federal court to stop new sports contracts in Michigan by September 9, 2026. Open positions must close by October 9. Its appeal to the Sixth Circuit continues. Source
- California tribes’ case Two tribes sued Kalshi and Robinhood over sports contracts on tribal land. On September 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit said they will likely win their gaming claims against Kalshi. Against Robinhood, they claim racketeering only. Source
The lesson is practical. A court deal can end sports trading in your state within days, as Michigan’s did. Check your state before you hold a long-dated sports position.
How Robinhood’s prediction market works
Every contract is a yes-or-no question priced from 1¢ to 99¢. A winning contract pays $1 and a losing one pays nothing. So the price doubles as the market’s probability.
| Cost of the contracts | $40.00 |
| Fee, at most 2¢ a contract | $2.00 |
| Total you pay | at most $42.00 |
| Paid out if the answer is Yes | $100.00, a profit of at least $58.00 |
| Paid out if the answer is No | $0.00, a loss of at most $42.00 |
You apply inside the app by tapping Yes or No on any event. Orders are limit orders. Immediate-or-cancel fills at once or cancels; good-til-date rests until 3 AM ET the next day.
You can sell before the result if someone is buying. Custom combos on pro football and basketball take up to 10 legs. They fill in full or not at all.
The exchange, not Robinhood, decides every result from a named data source. Robinhood says it cannot override a settlement.
Robinhood prediction market fees, with the arithmetic
A commission of 10% × price × (1 − price), capped at 1¢ a contract, or 5% with Gold. The exchange adds up to 1¢. On $100 at 50¢, which buys 200 contracts, that comes to $2.00 to $4.00.
Two fees apply on the way in, and again on the way out. The commission hits its 1¢ cap at most prices. Kalshi then charges 1¢ a contract on every Robinhood order.
Here is the arithmetic on 100 Kalshi-listed contracts at 50¢. You pay $1 in commission and $1 to Kalshi, so $2 each way. Kalshi’s own app charges a taker $1.75.
Long shots widen the gap. At 10¢, the same trade costs $1.90 through Robinhood, or $1.45 with Gold. On Kalshi it costs 63¢.
The app refuses any buy where fees push the cost to $1 or more, since no outcome could profit. Deposits are free, and so are bank withdrawals. Every rate is on our Robinhood fees page.
Does Robinhood pay out? Withdrawal times and fees
Yes. Once the exchange confirms a result, each winning contract pays $1. Robinhood says most sports payouts arrive within 1 to 2 business days. Elections can take much longer.
The payout lands in your event-contract balance first. It is generally withdrawable within 1 business day of settlement. So a game settled on a Friday can leave on Monday.
The slow part is often the deposit. Instant Deposits may not work for event contracts, and a bank transfer can take 1 to 5 business days. Debit cards and wires are faster.
| Withdraw by | Arrives | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| Bank transfer (ACH) | 1 day on Robinhood, then your bank’s timing | Free |
| Debit card | Up to 30 minutes | 1.75%, from $1 to $150 |
| Instant bank transfer (RTP) | Up to 30 minutes | 1.75%, from $1 to $150 |
| Wire | Same day if sent before 4 PM ET | $25 |
What you can trade on Robinhood’s prediction market
Robinhood lists all six categories we track: sports, politics, economics, crypto, culture and climate. Its hub also has pages for metals, commodities, tech and 15-minute crypto prices.
Football gets its own hub, filtered by week, team and conference. Games route to Kalshi, Rothera or Crypto.com’s exchange, depending on what each lists. Midterm contracts go to Kalshi and Rothera.
Robinhood’s website shows prices, but it publishes no price feed we can read. Contracts listed on Kalshi trade on Kalshi’s order book, and those prices appear in our live prediction market odds.
Where Robinhood’s prediction market is available
Robinhood offers event contracts to US residents, with state exceptions that mostly concern sports. Maryland residents cannot trade its sports contracts. Nevada residents have been unable to open new ones since December 1, 2025.
Michigan joined them on September 9, 2026, and open Michigan positions close by October 9. Robinhood’s help pages disagree on Maryland: one says sports only, another says all event contracts.
Other states are still in court. An agreed order protects Robinhood in New Jersey. Washington has agreed to hold off while the Nevada appeals run. A Massachusetts federal judge twice called Robinhood’s challenge premature, and it has appealed.
Connecticut ordered Robinhood to stop in December 2025, and the CFTC has since sued the state. Robinhood has asked to join that suit.
Robinhood also checks where you are, not just your address. Near a restricted state, a “stricter area” error can block a trade. Here is the state-by-state picture, with the case behind each.
| State | Status | Contracts | Case or action |
|---|---|---|---|
| CT | disputed | sports | Connecticut DCP Case No. 2025-336 (Dec 2, 2025) |
| IL | disputed | sports | Illinois Gaming Board cease-and-desist letter to Robinhood (Apr 1, 2025) |
| MD | blocked | sports | Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Commission cease-and-desist (Apr 7, 2025) |
| MA | disputed | sports | Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Campbell, No. 1:25-cv-12578 (D. Mass.); appeal No. 26-1257 (1st Cir.) |
| MI | blocked | sports | Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Nessel, No. 1:26-cv-00730 (W.D. Mich.), stipulation and order (Sep 4, 2026) |
| NV | blocked | sports | Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Dreitzer, No. 25-7831 (9th Cir. Aug 28, 2026) |
| WA | disputed | all | Robinhood Derivatives LLC v. Griffin, No. 3:26-cv-05311 (W.D. Wash.) |
| WI | disputed | sports | State of Wisconsin v. Kalshi, Inc., No. 3:26-cv-00378 (W.D. Wis.) |
Not legal advice. States are listed where a ruling, order or action applies; every other state follows the national default.
The Robinhood app and support
On the App Store, Robinhood rates 4.3 from 4,853,250 ratings. On Google Play it rates 4.7 from 577K. Both were read on September 25, 2026.
Those scores rate the whole Robinhood app, stocks and crypto included, not prediction markets alone. Event contracts trade only in the iOS and Android apps. The website shows markets without taking orders.
Support starts with 24/7 in-app chat. You can request a phone callback, usually within 30 minutes, from 7 AM to 9 PM ET on weekdays.
You can hide sports markets with a toggle, though you can still trade them. Full self-exclusion goes through support, and reversing it takes a review.
Robinhood pros and cons
Pros
- Regulated at every layer. The broker, Robinhood Derivatives, and each exchange it routes to are registered with the CFTC.
- A capped commission. Never more than 1¢ a contract, and Gold members pay half the rate below that cap.
- No new wallet to fund. Cash sweeps automatically between your brokerage and event-contract balances.
- Football combos up to 10 legs. Custom combos mix outcomes, spreads, totals and player contracts on pro football and basketball.
- Round-the-clock chat. In-app support chat runs 24/7, with phone callbacks on weekdays.
Cons
- No SIPC or FDIC cover. Event-contract cash is protected by CFTC segregation rules, not insurance.
- Kalshi contracts cost more here. Robinhood’s commission plus Kalshi’s 1¢ fee tops Kalshi’s own standard taker fee.
- Trading on the phone only. The website shows prices, but orders go through the iOS or Android app.
- Sports can close where you live. Maryland, Michigan and Nevada already bar new sports contracts, and more states are in court.
- A second approval to start. Event contracts need a separate derivatives account, and repeated refusals can mean a 30-day wait.
Robinhood vs the alternatives
Robinhood ranks sixth of 15 apps in our ranking of prediction market apps, at 4.3 out of 5. That does not make it right for everyone.
Many Robinhood contracts are Kalshi’s. At its standard taker rate, Kalshi’s own app charges less on them at every price. It trades on the web too.
Robinhood’s case is convenience. If your money already sits there, event contracts need a second approval but no new account to fund.
Our verdict: is Robinhood’s prediction market worth it?
Robinhood’s prediction market is legit. Its broker and every exchange it uses are CFTC-registered, and its commission is capped at 1¢ a contract.
The risks are specific. Event-contract cash has no SIPC cover. Kalshi-listed contracts cost more here than on Kalshi. And a court deal can close sports trading in your state, as Michigan traders learned in September.
If those risks suit you, check whether prediction markets are legal in your state first.