What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Isaias, at 44%. The market settles by Nov 30, 2026, and $4K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 44¢ reads as a 44% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
18 of these outcomes are priced on Kalshi too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaias | 44% | 44¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Other | 44% | 44¢ | $225 | Trade |
| Josephine compare | 11% | 11¢ | $336 | Trade |
| Kyle compare | 5% | 5¢ | $210 | Trade |
| Leah compare | 4% | 4¢ | $293 | Trade |
| Marco compare | 4% | 4¢ | $369 | Trade |
| Nana compare | 1% | 1¢ | $686 | Trade |
| Fay compare | 1% | 1¢ | $142 | Trade |
| Omar compare | <1% | <1¢ | $217 | Trade |
| Paulette compare | <1% | <1¢ | $138 | Trade |
Show 10 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edouard compare | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Cristobal compare | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Gonzalo compare | – | – | $22 | Trade |
| Hanna compare | – | – | $90 | Trade |
| Dolly compare | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Vicky compare | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Teddy compare | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Wilfred compare | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Rene compare | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Sally compare | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 44¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 11¢cheapest to buy | 89¢ | 0.5¢ | $336 | $2K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 16¢ | 84¢ | 0.9¢ | $245 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 30, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 44¢ for Isaias right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Isaias, at 44%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.