Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Omar? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Omar" at <1%, with 2 venues quoting at the same price. The contract settles by Dec 1, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | <1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $217 | $1K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 1¢ | 99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
If a storm named Omar is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then all markets resolve to No.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Omar"?
Markets currently price it at <1% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Omar"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.