Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Alabama, is at 7%. The market settles by Dec 7, 2026, and $496 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 7¢ reads as a 7% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 7% | 7¢ | $192 | Trade |
| Florida | 28% | 28¢ | $20 | Trade |
| South Carolina | 13% | 13¢ | $20 | Trade |
| Hawaii | 12% | 12¢ | $0 | Trade |
| North Carolina compare | 11% | 11¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mississippi | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Georgia | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Delaware | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| New Jersey | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| New York | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 9 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Virginia | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Rhode Island | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| New Hampshire | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Maryland | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Maine | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Connecticut | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Louisiana | – | – | $147 | Trade |
| Texas | – | – | $117 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 7¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 11¢ | 89¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | $268 | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 6¢cheapest to buy | 94¢ | 0.4¢ | $105 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 7, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 7¢ for Alabama right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Alabama, is at 7%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.