Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina by November 30, 2026? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina by November 30, 2026" at 9%, with 2 venues quoting within 5 points of each other. The contract settles by Dec 7, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 11¢ | 89¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | $354 | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 6¢cheapest to buy | 94¢ | 0.4¢ | $105 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
If a hurricane makes landfall in North Carolina during the 2026 hurricane season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 64% · $5K 24h volume, both venues
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Josephine?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 13% · $580 24h volume, both venues
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 7% · $570 24h volume, both venues
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Kyle?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 6% · $422 24h volume, both venues
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 40% · $318 24h volume, both venues
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ at execution.
Common questions
What are the odds on "Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina by November 30, 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 9% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina by November 30, 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.