Polymarket Bitcoin price on October 5 odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is 86,000-88,000, at 59%. The market settles by Oct 5, 2026, and $79K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 59¢ reads as a 59% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
This question also has a permanent page: Bitcoin price odds
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86,000-88,000 | 59% | 59¢ | $4K | Trade |
| 84,000-86,000 | 37% | 37¢ | $6K | Trade |
| 88,000-90,000 | 3% | 3¢ | $5K | Trade |
| 82,000-84,000 | 2% | 2¢ | $10K | Trade |
| 90,000-92,000 | <1% | <1¢ | $13K | Trade |
| 80,000-82,000 | <1% | <1¢ | $7K | Trade |
| 78,000-80,000 | <1% | <1¢ | $3K | Trade |
| <74,000 | – | – | $27K | Trade |
| 74,000-76,000 | – | – | $186 | Trade |
| 76,000-78,000 | – | – | $1K | Trade |
Show 1 more outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| >92,000 | – | – | $2K | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 59¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 5, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 59¢ for 86,000-88,000 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Bitcoin price on October 5?
On Polymarket, the favourite is 86,000-88,000, at 59%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.