Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, Yes trades at 47%. The market settles by Jan 1, 2027, and $565 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 47¢ reads as a 47% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 47¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 47¢ | 54¢ | 1.7¢ | $565 | $15K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 46¢cheapest to buy | 54¢ | 1.7¢ | $851 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.
If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Scheduled resolution: Jan 1, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 47¢ for Yes right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
More crypto markets
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
Polymarket · resolves Nov 1, 2026
$733K in 24h on Polymarket
Bitcoin above what price on October 25
Polymarket · resolves Oct 25, 2026
$432K in 24h on Polymarket
What price will Bitcoin hit October 19-25?
Polymarket · resolves Oct 26, 2026
$365K in 24h on Polymarket
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Polymarket · resolves Jan 1, 2027
$324K in 24h on Polymarket
What price will Ethereum hit October 19-25?
Polymarket · resolves Oct 26, 2026
$292K in 24h on Polymarket
Predict.fun FDV above what price one day after launch
Polymarket · resolves Jan 1, 2028
$165K in 24h on Polymarket
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?”?
On Polymarket, Yes trades at 47%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.