Will MicroStrategy announce holding … BTC by December 31, 2026? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, 1M+, is at 7%. The market settles by Jan 1, 2027, and $24K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 7¢ reads as a 7% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M+ | 7% | 7¢ | $24K | Trade |
| 800k+Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 7¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.
For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases
Scheduled resolution: Jan 1, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
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- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 7¢ for 1M+ right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Will MicroStrategy announce holding … BTC by December 31, 2026?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, 1M+, is at 7%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.